Tuesday, October 30, 2012

MBF (Morris Bullshit Factor)

"click here" for the audio of Dick Morris blowing smoke up your tookus. Follow along on the chart below showing the all-knowing-all-seeing Dick Morris predictions compared to the Real Clear Politics state averages.  We've also included the MBF.

Morris Bullshit Factor
CO Romney +4 or 5
FL Romeny +4 or 5
Romney +1.4
VA Romney +4 or 5

NH Romney +2
Obama +2
PA Romney +3
Obama +4.7
Oh tie
Obama +1.9
IA tie
Obama +2.3
WI tie
Obama +2.3
MI tie
Obama +4
MN Obama +3
Obama +5.3
NV Obama +2
Obama +2.4

Friday, October 26, 2012

Romney Will Lose If He Continues To Play It Safe

If you only listen to Fox News and Rush Limbaugh you believe Romney is winning. He's not, he's losing. Both Real Clear Politics and Intrade have Obama with 281 electoral votes with 11 days til the election. You only need 270 to win. Intrade predicted every state correctly in 2004 and had two states reversed in 2008.

Move your cursor over each state “click here” to see the candidates chance of winning. Notice Virginia has moved back toward Obama and has more chance of going for Obama than Ohio does of going for Romney. There have been a lot of one-off polls showing Pennsylvania and Michigan in play, however Intrade shows otherwise. Colorado is a toss up and currently leans Obama. Iowa and New Hampshire are trending Obama, while Wisconsin and Nevada are currently dark blue.

This is a far different picture from the one being painted by Sean Hannity, Dick Morris and Karl Rove. So then why is Romney pulling his punches on Benghazi? It's becoming clearer every day Obama refused to send in a rescue mission because he's haunted by the Jimmy Carter failed rescue attempt back in 1980.

I believe the Benghazi scandal has the potential of becoming one of the biggest in U.S. history. So again, why is Romney sitting with his arms folded? Because he's just as risk averse as Obama. He's terrified the media will again accuse him of politicizing the death of these four men. What, and Obama is not playing politics by withholding virtually all information, for nearly two months, until after the election?

Forget about the politics for a moment, only Romney has a megaphone large enough to force the media to get off their butts. The families deserve the truth and the American people deserve the truth. Once the truth comes out, the political consequences for Obama will be well deserved. If people knew Obama did nothing for seven hours while four of our men were being murdered, the election would be over. The problem is most people don't know. Now imagine how you'll feel on Nov. 7th if Romney loses because he played it safe by letting Obama off the hook on Benghazi.

Monday, October 22, 2012

How To Keep From Having A Stroke On Nov. 6th

This post has been going around Twitter for the last couple of days.

ROMNEY NOW HAS ELECTORAL LEAD!!!!!!!!!! RCP Polls: Romney takes 1st LEAD in electoral college: RCP industry bible

If you click on the link it takes you to this RCP map "click here"
It shows Romney with a 206 to 201 electoral vote lead. However in order to get there they have to show 131 toss ups.

If you simply click one link to the right it brings you to this page, "click here" the electoral map with no toss ups.  Now Obama is winning 277 to 261.

On Saturday I pointed out to someone on Twitter that the obscure poll she was touting "click here" was about as valid as the Lincoln Elementary poll.  She didn't like that so she blocked me.

My point is simply that if you only accept positive news, it still doesn't change reality.  Too many on my side are ignoring anything that might upset them.  Romney has been on an unprecedented surge lately and very well might win this thing.  But ignoring any negative news and only believing right-wing hype, just might cause you to have a stroke on Nov. 6

Tuesday, October 2, 2012

Replace Romney With Whom, The Ghost Of Reagan?

Ok it all started when I harmlessly pointed out that Obama was up by two points in Rasmussen and five points in the Fox News poll.  Then I get this twitter reply:

Wow. Let's just skip the election! You probably watch MSNBC too, right? #pollworship

Now was it really necessary to be snippy right off the bat?  I mean what ever happened to small talk? "You look like you have a nice follow through" or "I like your shoes" ya know, a few pleasantries. The MSNBC quip was a bit harsh but then to follow it up with the #pollworship dig was way over the top.  Am I right?  Do I look like a pollworshipper? C'mon.  That was followed by:

"Polls are easily manipulated. Many polls in 1980 showed Carter ahead. They are meant to moralize opposition"

I think he meant 'demoralize' but I let it go because I knew what he meant and I didn't want to come across as snippy.  However I still had to point out the myth of the Reagan comeback, because it was just that, a myth.  So I posted this article, "click here"

I don't think John cared much for the article because of this:

"Gee, thanks. I'm just gonna not vote" to which I replied:

When u say "Gee, thanks. I'm just gonna not vote" do u mean I read it but it made me sad bc I don't want 2 believe it's true?

Ok I admit that might have come across as a bit snippy, but even someone as mild mannered as myself can only refrain from being snippy for so long.

The heat was turned up when he said something about feeling bad for my defeatist mentality and that the pollsters had me right where they wanted me.  So now you're probably thinking I lashed out with another snippy comment, but you're wrong.  I calmly said:  we have a problem, ignoring it solves nothing. What's sad is so many on my side act like dems. "Well my intentions were good, I tried"

The larger point I was trying to make is we have to defeat Obama.  Our problem is Romney simply doesn't have the skill set or the temperament to win.  Simply crossing our fingers and closing our eyes is going to give us the same result as four years ago.

John told me to do something other than just complain.  So then I got super snippy and said: "John, no offense but I'm going to put u in the click your heels twice, fairy dust, unicorn column, but again no offense."  Ok perhaps I'm not always so mild mannered.  Especially seeing as how I followed up with: "so your plan is to ignore the polls, chant U-S-A, U-S-A, have i got that about right?

Now I have to admit John did respond with a good question.  "Replace Romney with whom, the ghost of Reagan?" Granted I could have done without the 'ghost of Reagan' snark, but still a valid question.  I said: "Romney should leave the campaign trail and turn it over to Ryan.  After the election Romney steps down and Ryan picks a new VP."

I'm serious.  Four years ago we knew weeks before election day, it was over.  We still have a month before judgement day. Are we really just going to sit quietly with our arms folded while we once again head over the cliff?  We've been told for the last year and a half if Obama wins reelection we won't survive.  Was that just hyperbole or did you really mean it?  Because if you really meant it, we do what ever it takes.

Things turned sour again when he went off on another 'manipulation of polls' rant and something about the evils of excess salt in our diet.  I may have called him a half baked wackadoodle, I really don't remember.  But I do remember comparing him to an emotional former girlfriend, during that time of the month.

I also told him earlier in the day Rush Limbaugh was talking about republican enthusiasm being 16 points higher than that of the democrats.  Listen to this Steve Deace interview of republican pollster Rick Shaftan.  Rick says the exact opposite. "click here for audio"

The reply:

WI recall polls had Scott Walker down 8%. How'd that work out?

This is probably where we reached the point of no return.  I said: "I don't know why in the era of Google you think you can make shit up and get away with it."  PPP is a dem pollster,  "click here"

Yup, a bridge too far.  Perhaps I should have said 'crap' instead of 'shit'.  These were the last words I ever heard from John: "Go watch a skin vid, sir. I'm finished with you. Adios"

So what can we learn from this tragedy? First, relationships are hard.  Second, if you're headed over the same cliff two presidential elections in a row maybe it's time to say: "AW HELL NO!!"